Analyzing the Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Agricultural Productivity. A Study of Agricultural Exports in the 21st Century

On a global scale, agriculture serves as a cornerstone in providing essential human needs. In the United States, while acting as a source of survival, it also plays an important role in maintaining and managing rural areas. Moreover, it is a main driver of socioeconomic activity; strengthening the labor force, contributing to GDP, acting as a key player in international trade, and overall, sparking economic growth. Given that climate change, in the form of extreme changes in weather patterns, is imposing threats to the survival of this activity, this thesis investigates the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity in the United States from 2000 to 2021. Panel data two-way linear fixed-effects regressions are estimated – using agricultural commodity exports as the primary economic measure for agricultural productivity and average temperature and precipitation as key independent climatic variables. Additional variables accounting for territorial, farming, and overall economic dynamics are added to control for other factors affecting agricultural productivity. Most of the data comes from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA - ERS), the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). While past literature on the topic mainly focuses on global trends in developing or undeveloped countries, this thesis is strictly concerned with the United States. Furthermore, while few papers have investigated this relationship in the U.S. context through various estimation methods, this thesis utilizes historical data and regression analysis to analyze the modern-day effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. In the end, the results of this thesis are intended to add insights to the ongoing discussions regarding climate change and agriculture.