To foul or to not foul? Experts frequently disagree on when a foul must or must not be committed within college basketball. However, it is clear that this strategic decision is critical, since it frequently heavily impacts the outcomes of games and even entire seasons. During the 2021-22 season, in NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball (MBB) alone, teams faced over 26,000 strategic fouling opportunities in last-minute scenarios.
In this research, I intend to compare different fouling strategies and their performance over time, using 13 seasons of actual MBB game data. The objective is to find a comprehensive fouling strategy based on this data that optimizes a team’s chances of winning. An important goal of this research is to provide a clear decision on whether to foul or not, and when, for common strategic fouling scenarios within college basketball.
Using extensive survey data on MBB coaches’ fouling strategies, I seek to compare different coaching approaches to strategic fouling. Additionally, using MBB game data, I wish to compare common elements between strategies for their historical performance, and develop a comprehensive strategy which includes the most common end of game scenarios in college basketball. The preliminary format of my strategy has been confirmed to be easily coachable and ready for implementation by MBB coaches.