If just the events of 2020 weren’t shocking enough, the homicide rate in the U.S. soared in 2020, increasing about 30% since 2019. This is the largest increase in the homicide rate over a single year ever recorded. Crime trends in 2020 were especially interesting because there was only a substantial increase in the homicide rate as opposed to an overall increase in a variety of crimes. Pinker (2011) writes about the “Decivilization” in the 1960s that coincided with astronomically high spikes in the homicide rate similar to what we saw in 2020. This raises the key question of this paper: are increases in the homicide rate associated with particular events that trigger violent behavior or general anxiety and unrest about the current environment? This paper aims to provide an empirical examination of the impacts of two major shocks to Americans in 2020 that could have contributed to the homicide rate: the COVID-19 pandemic and the Black Lives Matter movement.
I define mechanisms associated with these events that can be measured and act as possible channels of causality. I measure the impact of COVID-19 by gathering the number of cases and deaths in my counties of observation. To measure the impact of the Black Lives Matter movement, I look at the appearance of Black Lives Matter protests and riots in different counties. The annual number of homicides per county from the FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR) is measured for 2019, as well as in 2020 to assess a difference in the homicide rate after a viral incident of police violence. My analysis is motivated by the Cassell (2020) paper on a “Minneapolis Effect” on major cities after the Black Lives Matter movement, which refers to a withdrawal in proactive policing methods used to law enforcement to prevent and control crime. Additional findings by Campbell (2021) suggest that police responded to Black Lives Matter demonstrations from 2014 to 2019 with a withdrawal of policing in general. Abrams (2020) looks at the impact of COVID-19 on crime rates in 25 large U.S. cities and attributes part of the change in criminal opportunities to the disruption of the jail and court systems that were shut down due to the pandemic. I estimate the effects of the COVID-19 and Black Lives Matter mechanisms separately and together to identify if they had an impact on the homicide spike.I find that Black Lives Matter riots and COVID-19 deaths have a positive and overall significant influence on the increase of homicides in 2020. Overall, by looking at both COVID-19 and Black Lives Matter across the U.S. I was able to get a perception of the role major environmental stressors like these events play in the safety and longevity of American life.