The Impact of Plan Colombia: A Historical and Synthetic Control Approach

This thesis examines the historical and economic impact of Plan Colombia, a U.S.-backed initiative launched in 2000 to combat drug production, leftist insurgency, and political instability in Colombia. Framed as a comprehensive strategy to stabilize Colombia, Plan Colombia was deeply rooted in longstanding U.S. geopolitical interests, influenced by Cold War anti-communism, the War on Drugs, and the post-9/11 Global War on Terror. Utilizing a dual-method approach, this research combines historical analysis with a Synthetic Control evaluation. The Synthetic Control analysis constructs a counterfactual for Colombia, as if Plan Colombia were to never happen. By using key economic indicators such as GDP per capita, unemployment, and democracy ratings, the "Synthetic Colombia" allows for a quantifiable assessment of Plan Colombia's impact. Utilizing congressional records, declassified State Department reports, and scholarly works, this historical analysis explores the evolution of the U.S.-Colombia relations. Beginning in the mid-twentieth century to the implementation of Plan Colombia, this thesis directly looks at how Washington and the Colombian government prioritized themselves over the well-being of Colombian citizens. This examination reveals that while Plan Colombia achieved short-term military successes, including weakening the FARC and reducing urban violence, it also intensified violence in rural regions, created polarization, and led to widespread human rights violations. These findings challenge the narrative that Plan Colombia was a successful stabilization strategy, highlighting the complexities of a model like this being used for foreign intervention without realizing the possible consequences on political stability and social equality. Ultimately, this thesis argues that Plan Colombia prioritized U.S. security interests at the expense of sustainable peace and social equity in Colombia.