What Makes a Congressional District Competitive and Does it Matter?

According to the Cook Political Report, the number of congressional districts that were predicted to be competitive in August of each election year has declined from 52 in 2012 to 37 in 2016. Similarly, the number of congressional elections decided by less than a 10 percentage point margin has declined from 52 in 2012 to 27 in 2016. I ask whether socioeconomic and demographic homogeneity within districts is related to competitiveness. However, I find that such measures are generally not related to a district’s competitiveness. Moreover, the measures of district homogeneity have not changed much over time, casting doubt on the hypothesis that it plays a role in the decline in competitiveness. I also find that campaign finance contributions are higher in competitive districts, meaning that individuals, political committees, and political parties focus their donations to races where such donations are more likely to make a difference. However, Democratic political committees are slightly more strategic in their donations to competitive districts than their Republican counterparts. I also find that the role of political party contributions appear to be fairly insignificant relative to the other sources of funds to candidates. This research allows me to expand the current literature associated with competitive districts and identify strategic and efficient fundraising patterns.