A Long Term Exploration of Democracy After the Arab Spring

The notion that no event occurs in a vacuum has long been accepted in the world of history and political science. Take the Middle Eastern Arab Spring as an example. After fierce protests broke out in 2011, the world held its breath and watched while authoritarian regimes that had, in some cases, stood for centuries faced the threat of popular democratic protests. Despite the fact that a majority of the regimes remained standing, the effect of these protests, both in literature and on the ground, play an imperative role in regional politics until this very day. If the ultimate goal of the Arab Spring was to immediately establish democracy across the Middle East, then it would be fair to deem the entire time period as a failure, but this does not seem to be a fair judgement. There have been other changes, like a shift in the narrative against the regime, that indicates a chance for democratic reform in the future.
In the first chapter, I address the seemingly parallel events of today to then trace back main demands, styles, and repertoires of contention to protests in 2011, exploring ways in which the Arab Spring may have acted as a catalyst for the current and future struggle for democracy in the region. Because democratic regimes are a relatively new form of governance, in any region of the world, I believe achieving democracy is a non-linear, multi-step process and any interpretation of the Arab Spring should be viewed through this lens. In chapter two, l turn to the literature surrounding the Arab Spring in an attempt to critically analyze authoritative interpretations of the Arab Spring. In other words, I outline and ultimately argue against the claims of Middle Eastern scholars who see no future for democracy in the region; whether it stems from religious tensions or lack of political opposition. In chapter three, I conduct an assessment of the structural conditions in a number of different Arab nations that would either hinder or support the process of future democratization. In classic literature, the pre-conditions for democracy at transitional times have been classified as "arenas" and, since then, authors have outlined their own qualifications for successful arenas (Linz and Stepan). Above all, this chapter aims to explain the likely hood for democracy, in nations where people have already mobilized and called for theoretic change, using historical preconditions and arenas of democracy found in the literature.