An Empirical Analysis of Climatic, Geographic, and Cultural Determinants of International Tourism

Each year over one billion people visit different countries all around the world. For many of those countries, tourism is their primary industry, leading to millions of jobs and dollars in revenue. It is expected that by 2020 total international tourism receipts will reach 2 trillion annually. Currently, tourism employs an estimated 100 million people around the world. With the continued progression of climate change, the tourism industry is facing a newfound threat. Global temperatures are expected to rise 2.6 – 4.8 C, and the sea level is expected to rise .45 – .82 meters by the end of the century. In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that wildfires, tropical storms, and other natural disasters will increase in size and frequency. In recent years, governments, organizations, and private citizens have increased their efforts to curtail the effects of climate change and better understand the problems associated with it. This paper seeks to identify further determinants of international tourism and help better understand the connections between climate change and tourism revenue. By utilizing an Ordinary Least Squares regression, this analysis identifies relationships between cultural, geographic, and climate variables and International Tourism Receipts in countries all around the world. The results show that seasonal temperature and precipitation levels in both high and low elevations have a strong effect on International Tourism Receipts. Winter tourism and “sun and sand” tourism, are affected in different ways, but climate change is significant throughout. Using this data to better understand seasonality and how climate change is affecting tourism will help add to the existing literature, and hopefully, help governments and organizations prepare for what the future holds.